2022 Week 50: Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K)

Portfolio Update

The FiveTwenty portfolio received $116.73 dividends in the past week. ADM, EMR, and JNJ paid their quarterly dividend during the week.

Past Week Dividend$116.73
Current Quarter Dividend (Q4 2022)$1,157.18
LifeTime Dividend$7,452.46
Estimated Annual Dividend$7,516.61
Dividend Scorecard

The capital allocation for the week of 12/11/2022 to 12/11/2022 will be used to add to our position in Kellogg Co (NYSE: K).

K – Position Update

Since our last check-in on K in week 11 of 2022, the company reported Q1 2022 earnings on 05/05/2022, Q2 2022 earnings on 08/04/2022, and Q3 2022 earnings on 11/03/2022. Additionally, the share price increased 20.9% from $59.85 to $72.34.

TTMPrev. Update10-year median
Dividend Streak19 years18 years
Yield3.23%3.88%3.18%
Payout Ratio56.80%155.64%2
P/E17.56114.352
Entry Criteria Scorecard

1 computed using TTM adjusted EPS of $4.12 as of Q3 2022
2 computed using TTM adjusted EPS of $4.16 as of Q4 2021

Q3 2022 earnings report

Did K’s latest earnings report raise any warning flags?

For Q3 2022, K had strong sales growth due to positive price/mix. The company did well to mitigate negative impacts of high inflation and bottlenecks. Furthermore, K continues to work towards the planned separations of its North America cereal and plant-based businesses. Overall, revenue grew 9%, adjusted operating profit decreased 0.2%, and adjusted EPS were 7.3% lower than in Q3 2021.

Revenue
(in millions)
Adj. Operating Profit
(in millions)
Adj. EPS
.
Q3 2021$3,622$449$1.09
Q3 2022$3,946$449$1.01
% Change9%(0.2)%(7.3)%

Additional noteworthy developments during the quarter:

  • On 10/28/2022 K declared a dividend of $0.59 per share payable on 12/15/2022 to shareholders of record at close of business on 12/01/2022.

Looking ahead, K expects net sales growth of +10%, operating profit growth of +6%, and adjusted EPS growth of +3% on a currency-neutral basis. Additionally, it expects capital expenditure of $0.5 billion on cash flow of $1.2 billion.

Thesis

Why are we adding to our position in K?

K’s core business has done well during the first 3 quarters of 2022. The company has navigated the high inflationary environment and currency headwinds during the beginning of the year. This confirms our belief in the long-term prospects of the company.

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